ETF Indexing, Carl’s Scan and New ChartLists on DecisionPoint.com (01.13) | DecisionPoint


Hello
it helps when you turn off the mute button. Alright welcome ChartWatchers
and especially to our DecisionPoint faithful. Glad to have you with us today
on this Monday January 13th 2020 show of DecisionPoint with your
hosts Carl and Erin Swenlin. If you’re joining us for the first time today we
welcome you and hope you will become one of those DecisionPoint faithful we do
air on Mondays at five p.m. Eastern so be sure and sign up and watch us live, if
you’re watching the recording we’d love to have you live. Alright, so how is
everything going for you dad? Oh not too bad, really the markets still bullish. Yeah I have to say though I know I read your weekly rap which I highly recommend
people go and read of course you do need to be a member of DecisionPoint.com to
read it but you know you definitely had a flavor out there that was
somewhat bearish and then I noticed John Murphy just recently published an
article and he’s he’s actually quite bearish right now so I I guess you could
say that things are a little bit precarious right now. Yeah I have two
charts that I want to share that will say why you know I feel I’m very nervous
right about now. Alrighty so we’re gonna talk a little bit about our DecisionPoint.com chart lists I’m gonna look at a few charts in there that I really
found interesting, we’re gonna have a discussion on sector indexing this is
something we’ve talked about on our show before but we think it’s really
important to hammer at home so we’re gonna talk some more about that. We’ll
give you our thoughts on the SPY like Carl said he’s got some great charts he
wants to show you. If we have time I’ll talk a little bit about the DecisionPoint Diamonds and show you one of them I have to say I did make, I didn’t make a
recommendation, I can’t make those but I did let everybody know
that I had purchased one of my diamonds and of course my diamonds do
so well until I purchase one so, I will look at, probably look at some of
the winners but I might revisit one of the losers that I picked out for myself.
So we will look at that but there are a lot of great ones in there as well. For
our bonus of course Carl’s grab-bag so I know we have lots that you want to show
us but let’s go ahead and get started. I think I’ll go ahead and move us right
on into the onto our website at DecisionPoint.com and you can see everything
right? Yes. Excellent so of course here this is our homepage you can
create an ID and password as a free member we recommend that you do sign up
for a free newsletter of course if you want to get the really great stuff you
do need to be a DecisionPoint member DecisionPoint.com member, we have the
DecisionPoint Alert and we have the DecisionPoint Diamonds. So as you can
see you get all of those in an easy place to find them on our website but
what I thought I would look at right now.. It is gonna have will have some free
content in there eventually. Yes, because if you scroll down there we do post some
free information these are from before we started charging but you can find
those and if you’re on are either a member or if you’re on our free email
list I will send you notice when we published a free article or something
free that you might want to take a look at. In fact last week I posted, I sent out
information on the WealthWise Women show because I did co-host that so I
sent a link to that to all of our members at DecisionPoint.com. Alright
so I wanted to take a quick peek at a few of the charts in our DecisionPoint
Alert chart list on on our website you will get all of the annotations that
Carl has, he’s the curator of our chart lists and so when he sees something that
you might want to look at we put these in the DecisionPoint Alert chart list
and I know you write your weekly wrap straight from this chart list am I
right? That’s correct, yes. So you’re seeing exactly what Carl’s
looking at and all of his annotations of course these are available on
stockcharts.com but they don’t, they’re not curated you’ll have to kind of dig
them out from our chart packs etc but I want to go over here
and look at a chart that I talked about during the ChartWatchers article. I
wrote an article about the S&Ps 10-day moving average of the high-low
differential this is one of those charts I always forget to look at and I have to
say looking at the DP chart list that Carl put together I noticed this chart
was one of them I was perusing through our own chart list and I found one that
I found interesting that I wanted to talk about so I wrote about it and ChartWatchers but what I had been looking at was the expansion we were seeing in new
highs but as you can see already, we’re starting to see that trickle downward a
little bit here so I’m gonna be keeping an eye on that but you know you don’t
want to be making new all-time highs and then see that new highs are beginning to
fail but this is the indicator I like to look at I find that when you see this
indicator bottom it typically comes when you want it to at the beginning of a
rally, now unfortunately we had that bottom and it already started at it’s
way up and already of course it’s starting to decelerate somewhat so I’m
going to be keeping an eye on this chart and I will probably add it. Yes, I wanted
to comment on this and one of the things I see you have your annotation is
showing the expansion but if you look you go, you draw a line from the earlier
in December across the most recent high bar it’s actually contracting in terms
of where the index itself is going. Right. The price index
well I still think it’s, there’s a certain amount of certain limit to what
this can expand to but I I still think that it should be showing higher new
highs as the market is going higher. Well certainly when you make all-time highs
you don’t want to see any contraction on some of these indicators so. Right that
as you correctly noted the last two days trading days it has protracted and it’s
not happy picture. No, no absolutely not but this is one of those indicators that
you might wanna, you don’t have to add it to your ChartList again if you’re a
member it’s already there for you but that was one of the ones that was
piquing my interest that I wanted to talk about and so I thought I would kind
of rehash what I was seeing as far as this chart because it is starting to
change from when I wrote just last Friday all right I’m gonna hand the
screen over to you I know you had a couple of charts we were gonna talk
about the the sector indexing the sector funds the ETF indexing. Right, before I
get into that I like to look at some couple charts here that will show you
why I’m kind of negative on the market and its weighted how bullish can then
just act but notice here that we’ve got a declining tops on the stocks greater
than their 20 EMA and this doesn’t always happen before tops but when it
does happen you should be looking out see now note here we’ve got a nice
contraction on the stocks above their 20 same with the stocks above 50.
Most of the time you get no contraction on the 200 but if you look back at this
major top that was before the cyclical bear market we had but really a grand
contraction on all three of these indicators but again here’s at this top
this parabolic powerful it just stocks stayed up there till the parabolic
broken and the market broke down but is you see across here, this is not a
good this is not a good situation is to have this weakness showing up. I think
there’s probably about 25 percent lower and we haven’t updated yet, let me just
try to update and see if we have updated yet, see let me turn out, no, it’s not gonna be til later. It’ll be interesting to see if if we get it moving higher but we
want to see, we certainly will want to see those readings move up based on the
market action today for sure. This is a you know really excellent indicator of
my mind a meaning took me years to realize it you know it’s really a direct
read on stops as our strong stocks that are weak and then it’s just you can’t
get much better than this indication. Yep it’s very straightforward and you know
if you just think about a stock a chart if you’re looking at a stock when the
when the price goes below the 20-day EMA generally not a play, you’re
generally going to be considering selling it anyway and if you get a price
drop below the 50-day EMA you’re really in trouble then so that’s at least
three-quarters we’re seeing above but on the 50-day EMA but still one out of four
is below its 50-day EMA. Right, here’s the golden cross and silver cross indexes
they are up to date as of today and of course today smooth that’s
turned it back up again and back up again above the signal line. The main
reason I wanted to show you this is that the angle of ascent on this rising
trend here is demonstrated is about the same as what we, I always want
the arrow to be active first. He got the same angle of ascent right now as you
had on the parabolic just before it broke so not a pretty picture but you
know all these other important tops are not as steep as this one. Yeah at least
this rally is a little less parabolic but it doesn’t seem to matter much when
you look at those other two where we got the failure. Right and one of the things
I wanted the cover, you mentioned it in the intro there but we were
talking about how indexing is causing a bubble with the people you know we have
SPY we have a ton of mutual funds out there loaded no loaded all based on the
S&P 500 and they, when if somebody buys a share of the SPY they’re buying all 500
stocks and the complaint that I had before was that this is giving
sponsorship to stocks that don’t deserve sponsorship but then I got to
thinking about it over a couple of weeks and I thought no the problem is all the
stocks are being sponsored and maybe they don’t need to be sponsored. There’s not any selection going on it’s just every stock in the S&P 500 is getting bought and
that’s just not a healthy situation. Let’s see I want to do, yeah this is the
list of the eleven S&P 500 sectors and I wanted to demonstrate the
monolithic nature of the trends on these sectors. Let’s see I want to look at
CandleGlance, okay here we are notice that just pretty much all would
look the same I mean except energy and real estate is kind of departed from
from that the general trend there so and it’s starting to come back as you can
see or today but I really wish that they were there’s some more diversity
here but you don’t find it. I started to check a ChartList actually back in the
old days DecsionPoint.com and called the ETF tracker and I’ve got a
hundred ETFs in there, that, let me see if I can just find it here and look I’m
going to make this public so that it’s something that’s something you can work
out on it keep a hundred, around a hundred, ETFs in here. Let me just put it
let me go to the summary. Yeah, I will be taking this ChartList and I’m
going to add it to the free ChartPacks that you can get on StockCharts.com
the DecisionPoint one so it’s not in there just yet but I’m gonna
add it and I will certainly let all of our subscribers know as well as the free
email list folks when it’s up and ready. Okay and just a brief review here but
I’ve got the major indexes to begin with and then we have some bonds interest
rates and then we go into sectors and I don’t know maybe they’re some of the
60/70 sectors that are to have some diversity to them and and then let’s see
we’ve got ya hit some I’ve got commodities mixed in there because they
are a different sector and then we have the currencies and then global markets
but it’s a I think it’s a good list to to work with and you can, I got on slow
scroll here, I like to do this sort it by you know daily change and I got some
charts this is okay I go ahead with those? Yeah. Okay um let’s go back here Here’s one I picked up sugar, now this
is an ETN and that’s different so if he ever got interested in this
that he would need to know that these are not it’s a safe on the maybe that’s
the wrong word too – but they’re different but they kind of serve a
purpose but this is you can see it’s a it’s very not traded very much volume on
it but let’s just go to the weekly and see the how it’s starting to show
some activity we’ve got we’ve got a long term double bottom here and that you
know to me that’s that’s the kind of thing I like to see. I like this go after
the ones that are beaten down. If I’m on the track I’ll probably bet on the
50 to 1 one horse. Yeah. And then you can see the longer-term chart the same set up there and let’s see, we have natural gas I’ve been watching it and
it’s in the toilet right now and it’s it’s gonna stay there a while and
showing a little activity but it’s been trending down and if you think about,
on your utility bill chances are you know your gas, natural gas bill is the lowest
to the water and electrical and bath water, natural gas I should say. Look at
that move but I know gosh I know I was buying in and out of it, I think you were
at one point – UNG but I learned my lesson and I just it was, yeah, it just
never acted the way it was supposed to Yeah,
it’s it’s really and I don’t you know with the way things are running in the
in the oil market and those kind of resources
I don’t see anything turning around on this any time soon, so I have UNG
which is the ETF but there’s also we do have the continuous contract for natural
gas and you get a longer term look with it because the ETF’s don’t have that
long term view but we are pretty much down at the bottom and ultimately
it’s going to come back but you know who knows when. Yeah with that PMO not
too soon. These were these are charts I picked out for that ETF tracker list and
I just I just found it there was some interesting charts on there. Here’s the
software what I notice from here is it’s starting it’s starting to move vertical
and that’s just know it can’t last forever around it’s even worse on it’s
the monthly chart is where you get the best view and and maybe the if it
doesn’t start you know parabolic don’t start to appear except on the monthly
chart but when they’re showing up on the on the weekly or even the daily and then
it’s probably a shorter term phenomena but you can, you know I won’t say you can
bet 100% on it, but chances are good that it’s going to have a pullback of a
substantial amount. Here’s another interesting rare earths and obviously
taking off looking really excellent and you go how
hmm and here’s not sure if we want to count this as a long-term double bottom
or not, you can see there’s been, there was a fake outbreak out here but now
this was even a more shallow bottom and chances are this is, this is my guess is
it’s a gonna be heading higher. I was look at the monthly I think there’s
no I didn’t get any consumers contract on that one. Yeah I am seeing the price
bumping above some of those really long term moving averages too that we haven’t
seen in a while. Right and this is what I like to keep an eye on because of the
mess real estate has caused many people’s lives over the last 20 years
but builders it’s and it’s breaking out maybe from that maybe but this is a
consolidation right here maybe saucer but saucers really come at
bottoms not a tops I wouldn’t go for that. Let’s look at the weekly okay
there you got a top right about the same height so you’ve got long term
resistance right there the this is a monthly, I’m sorry it’s a weekly chart
and the week the PMO is turned down is it’s kind of trying to turn up right
here. Yeah if it could hold the breakout out of that trading range that
could be interesting at least on the daily chart especially looks interesting,
little less so in the weekly but. So I could pass it back to you if you have.
All right, let’s see, what was I gonna show. You know since you were
talking,actually I’m going to kind of move a little off
off the agenda a little bit but since you were talking about how you like to
get those beat down stocks, I do run a scan that I sat down with Carl and we
put together and it does come up with a lot of the beat down stocks and so a lot
of times when I’m looking for diamonds I will pull these up and you get kind of a
feel for for what might be going on and really I find some pretty good
diamonds there so I since there’s only five I thought we could look at maybe
one or two is that alright? Sure. I don’t want to do that, I’m gonna put it in so I
have a ChartList list called scan dump so anytime I run a scan I dump stuff in
there and I know that it is completely gonna be changing all the time so if I
like a chart in here I have to save it somewhere else because I know I’m gonna
take it out the next next time I get a scan result
so here’s Marathon Petroleum it’s in the energy space you can see the double
bottom it looks like it’s forming right now which is interesting I would have to
say the PMO’s turned up we don’t quite have the crossover yet but I do notice
those slightly rising bottoms matching with the PMO bottoms OBV, mmm, I would
like to see these two bottoms rising instead of falling while we’ve got rising
price bottoms but that, yeah I don’t think that’s too significant. Yeah let’s
look at Kiwi Financial space another double bottom today, actually Friday, it
broke out and I would be a little leery of this one just because you know
it it traveled so high intraday but ended up closing below it’s open it’s
still holding above you know what happened Friday but I am never happy
seeing those tails or shooting stars kind of what that’s the candlestick
pattern that we’re talking about but look at the OBV bottoms, a lot different
looking you’ve got the two rising bottoms pretty clear these are a little
bit rising but you know mostly for sure yeah so I like that one but
here’s what will happen with the beatdown ones and we’ll see if this is a
good example the weekly charts tend to look pretty stinky because it’s beatdown
so of course you’re gonna see that kind of a movement on the PMO so you have to
be aware of that that’s when I start to look at where these averages are and
again if you’re looking for a less than you know if you want a longer term
investment you know you can look also in the monthly charts this one doesn’t look
too bad kind of overbought but whenever we have only a little bit of information
on the PMO I I kind of I don’t know take it with a grain of salt per se nice
around your bottom on this one it’s just now closed for the first time
since the drop above that 20-day EMA you’ve got the PMO by signal coming in
look at the obv making that nice move to the upside and even the SCTR is
starting to make a turn and and the StockCharts Technical Rank tells you
that there’s relative strength and internal strength in this case not so
much relative strength because you’ve got a low reading but it is starting to
improve and that tells you that as far as internal strength goes the intermediate
and long term are starting to look more positive. This one I would have to watch
for that 50-day EMA be really interesting to see if it can get above
these two longer-term lines but that’s actually not a bad setup on the daily
and quickly look at the weekly and then we can wrap things up. Weekly chart on
this one not too bad considering how you know I what I see is this possible
trading range and price is at the bottom of it right now so that would be the
target would be right around 1150. It’s crude had a bad day today so I’m not
sure how that’s gonna work out that the energy sector has been showing promise.
Yep This one’s in utilities and I did
notice today when I was looking and again we only have a few more seconds
but when I was looking at the sector scoreboard
make it right here it’s like your summary I did notice you know we were
seeing utilities were coming to life a little bit materials, technology those
were all our leaders today and that’s kind of a smattering of you know
defensive and more aggressive areas of the market so it’s kind of a mix mix
mixing around here and the energy of course was up but but not not very much
all right well I think it’s time for us to say goodbye and I appreciate
everybody joining Carl and I for the DecisionPoint show, we do air on Mondays
at 5 p.m. Eastern so we do hope you’ll join us again next week happy trading

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